Circle of the West

To invest or not to invest - that is the question. I'm going to share with you something someone told me about the cycle of booms in the West. It seems to be true, although I can't prove it. It's only an observation.

After California experiences a boom cycle people are flush with money and we seem to "export" the boom to the east, Arizona and Nevada. After prices rise there, the boom "spills over" to the neighboring states of Utah and Idaho. Then the market takes off in Oregon and Washington. Finally, growth returns to California and the cycle begins again.

I know it sounds wierd, but it seems to track. The boom that began in California moved to Arizona and Nevada a few years ago and those markets have now cooled. It's currently a seller's market in Salt Lake City and Seattle. Boise had a run-up a couple of years ago and has now settled down into a normal market. Oregon is starting to see some good appreciation.

So if the pattern holds, we'll be seeing California rebound in the next year or two. Those who left California seeking lower house prices have now made some money, and as our prices drop they will be looking to return. It happens every generation in the great "Circle of the West".