Between The Storms

The view from my balcony in Carlsbad this morning. Glorious!

Snow in The Mountains

We woke up in Idyllwild to some fresh snowfall! A day later it was melted, but it lasted long enough to give us some great scenery. While I don't want to live in the snow, I do appreciate its beauty. OK, I admit it, our soutern California coastal weather sometimes IS a bit boring, especially to this eastern boy who grew up with the seasons. The good news is, if I ever want to see some different weather, it's just 2 hours away by car.

An acrobatic tree squirrel having lunch at our bird feeder.

An Economist's Forecast for 2007

Yesterday I attended a talk in San Diego about the future of the real estate market here. Gary Watts, who has an excellent tract record for predicting the market, is bullish about San Diego real estate. He debunked the media hype and pointed out all the reasons why this area will continue to do well.

If you're interested, here's a copy of the handout. Call me if you have any questions, or would like to talk about San Diego real estate!

Median Home Price Ticks Up

The median price for re-sale single-family homes in San Diego County started the year with a gain of 0.9%. Year-over-year, the median price was off 4.1%. This is the seventh month in a row year-over-year prices have declined. The median price is now 6.4% below the high of $598,000 reached in November 2005.


Home sales fell 27.5% from December. Year-over-year, sales were down 10.6%. January had the least amount of sales since we've been keeping track: January 1998. We expect sales to pick up as the spring and summer selling seasons arrive.

The median price for condos rose 1.7% to $357,000, month-over-month, off 7.8% compared to last January. The median price is now 8.9% below the high of $392,000 set in November 2005. On a positive note, condo sales were up 3.4% year-over-year. This is the first time condo sales have been higher than the year before since June 2005.

The sales price to list price for single-family homes fell 0.6 of a point to 94.4%. The ratio for condos dropped 0.6 of a point to 94.6%.

Days on market rose six to 79 days. This is the highest it has been since we've been keeping records: January 1998.

My advice? For buyers, there's plenty of inventory. Some sellers are willing to make deals, witness the sales price to list price ratio of 94.4% compared to the average since January 1998 of 96.3%. To find a seller willing to negotiate, you have to make offers.

For sellers, three words: price it right.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.

Adventures in Imperial

In the never ending quest for a good investment, I drove over 350 miles today to check out tax-defaulted properties in Imperial County. This is San Diego's neighboring county to the east, consisting mostly of desert and farmland. Some of these properties were truly horrible, but depending on what they sell for, it might be an opportunity. I'd like to say I've seen worse, but I don't think I have!

It's always a pleasure to drive through the eastern part of San Diego County, known to the locals as the "backcountry". Here's a shot of the rolling hills in Santa Ysabel.

Another Lousy Day..

Yes, it's February 4th, and yes it is 70 degrees with warm sunshine. Just another lousy day in Southern California! I was out and about today taking some pictures for my soon to be remodeled website, and was reminded again of why we live here! Here's some shots from today: a family kayaking in Oceanside Harbor, walkers along Carlsbad Boulevard, and the trail leading down to South Carlsbad State Beach.

Log Home and Timber Frame Expo

I'm back from Sacramento, site of the Log Home and Timber Frame Expo! After a full day of seminars and exhibits, I know a lot more about these building methods than I did before. I watched them build a small log cabin right there at the show! Having everything pre-cut at the factory sure makes the building go up fast on the site. I just finished building a garage using standard construction methods, and it was measure, cut, nail, measure, cut, nail, every single piece of the garage. This log frame was more like assembling a puzzle, except each piece was labelled so you knew where it went. A few splines, drive in some screws with a screw gun, and the building is up!

Timber framing is another method of building that has been around for centuries. In this technique, large timbers provide the basic structure of the building. The latest innovation is to attach Structural Integrated Panels (SIPs) to the frame. A SIP is a 8 by 24 foot piece of rigid foam insulation sandwiched between two pieces of plywood (actually OSB, but let's call it plywood). All window and door openings are cut out by computers at the factory. Your interior and exterior finishes are then attached to the SIPs. In the picture below, tongue and groove pine was used as the finish material.

This type of house uses less wood than a convention stick-built home, and costs 50% less energy to heat it. The frame and panels can go up fast, giving you a completed shell in a matter of days. While the large timbers seem to fit the style of mountain homes, soon you will be seeing timber framing used in tract homes.

This is the method we will use on our future place in Idyllwild. We'll also be using PEX plumbing, another innovation that's just starting to go mainstream. Del Webb is using PEX in their new homes in Hemet.

And then of course the furniture dealers we there! Here's an awesome bed with built-in lamps made of Aspen trees from Colorado. What makes the logs unique is that elk have chewed on the Aspens, causing the trees to grow around the injury and creating this unique look. If you have an extra $6500 for a bed, you can check it out at http://www.tmoriginals.com/.