San Diego Fire

For the past three days we've been experiencing the worst disaster in San Diego history. While we are in no danger of fire where we live, the air has been definitely unhealthy. This picture shows the smoke rolling into Carlsbad.


Another view of the fire from the Temecula area, looking towards San Diego County.



If you know of any families who have lost their homes, I would be happy to help them find a rental property. While I normally don't work in the rental market, I would like to help in any way I can. These folks will be facing a rental property shortage, and an extra hand might help. Our prayers are with those who are facing serious challenges because of this catastrophe.

San Diego County Property Sales Plunge in September

As expected, the credit crunch had a big impact on sales last month. Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 34.3% from the month before, and were off 32.6% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 16.3%. We expect sales to be slow this month, then start to recover at the end of the quarter as the credit crunch is alleviated.

Condo sales were down 34.3% month-over-month, down 24.7% compared to last September. Year-to-date, condo sales are down 15.4%.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in San Diego County fell 4.4% from the month before, and was down 2.9% year-over-year. The average price was down 2.1% from August.
The median price for condos dropped 3.3% to $338,500, a loss of 5.5% year-over-year. The average price fell 4.2% to $408,780, down 7.3% compared to last September.

The sales price to list price for single-family homes fell 0.1 of a point to 94.5%. The ratio for condos dropped 0.3 of a point to 95.4%.

Days on market for homes rose one day to 69 days. Days on market for condos rose eight to 69 days. Take these numbers with a grain of salt. If a property listing is canceled, withdrawn or expired and then re-listed, days on market is re-set to zero.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.

C.A.R.'S 2008 California Housing Market Forecast

Home prices throughout most of California will post modest declines next year while sales of existing homes will stabilize from the precipitous decrease experienced in 2007, according to C.A.R.'s "2008 California Housing Market Forecast" released today.

The forecast was presented this afternoon during the CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2007, running from Oct. 9-11 at the Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, Calif. The trade show attracts nearly 12,000 attendees and is the largest state real estate trade show in the nation.

The median home price in California will decline 4 percent to $553,000 in 2008 compared with a projected median of $576,000 this year, while sales for 2008 are projected to decrease 9 percent to 334,500 units, compared with 367,500 units (projected) in 2007.

"Tighter credit standards, affordability concerns, and a continued standoff between buyers and sellers will contribute to continued weakness in the market going into next year," said C.A.R. President Colleen Badagliacco. "Now is not the time for homeowners to test the waters, only serious sellers should put their homes on the market in what will continue to be a challenging sales environment."

San Diego Sunset

I took this shot from my balcony tonight, and was thinking about how good we have it here in San Diego. This is just a typical end to a typical sunny day, with temperatures in the mid 70s.

While enjoying the view, I thought of all those who would love to live here and own property here. They're out there, just waiting. Yes, the bottom is coming, and when it does, it will be a free for all! I talk to several people EVERY DAY who are waiting for the magical bottom. Is it in 2008? It might be. All I can say is that I don't expect a big floor at the bottom. With all the people out there all trying to catch the bottom, it will probably look like a downward spike. In other words, once the word is out that people are buying again, the rise off the bottom will be sharp and dramatic.

As for me, I'm collecting names of people who are waiting. Someday soon they will wait no longer. The sun may be setting in San Diego, but I know that there will be a sunrise. And I'll be ready for it.